In April 2024, Pakistan witnessed a significant drop in power generation, recording 8,639 GWh (11,612 MW), marking a 13.7% decline compared to the previous year’s figures.
The decrease is stark when compared to April 2023, where power generation peaked at 10,010 GWh (13,903 MW).
Despite this annual slump, there’s a glimmer of hope in the monthly data. April 2024 saw a 7.7% increase in power generation compared to March, with a total of 8,023 GWh.
The boost in April’s figures is attributed to the improved performance of Re-gasified Liquid Natural Gas (RLNG) and gas, which experienced increases of 30.1% and 22.6%, respectively.
However, the bigger picture for the fiscal year (July to April) paints a less optimistic picture. Power generation saw a 2.4% year-on-year decline, reaching 101,089 GWh, down from 103,592 GWh in the same period last year.
This downward trend is largely due to decreased generation from nuclear and gas, experiencing drops of 9% and 23.9%, respectively.
Arif Habib Limited (AHL), a brokerage house, reported that in April 2024, actual power generation fell short by 20.4% compared to the reference generation. This shortfall is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 4QFY24 QTA.
While power generation dipped, there’s a silver lining in terms of costs. The total cost of generating electricity in April 2024 saw a significant decrease of 10.1%, falling to Rs9.21 per KWh, down from Rs10.24 per KWh in the previous year.
This reduction in cost is attributed to the decline in RLNG power generation costs, which dropped to Rs22.13 per KWh, a 7.2% decrease compared to the previous year.
April saw RLNG emerging as the leading source of power generation in Pakistan, constituting 25% of the generation mix, surpassing hydel and nuclear sources, which accounted for 24% and 23.6%, respectively.
Renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and bagasse collectively contributed 5.2% to the overall generation mix, with wind being the most significant contributor at 3.3%.